Small business optimism finally turned upward in June, offering a rare signal of relief for Black entrepreneurs navigating high inflation and tight labor markets. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed 2.1 points to 97.4, edging closer to its 52-year average of 98.0 and marking a shift from the declines seen earlier this year [1][2]. This rebound wasn’t just noise—it was driven by concrete improvements in real sales expectations and confidence that business conditions will improve over the next six months [1].
Hiring Plans Rebound While Labor Shortages Persist
For small business owners trying to scale, the job market is showing mixed but promising signs. Thirty-two percent of owners reported unfilled job openings in June, up 3 points from May’s lowest level since May 2020 [1]. More importantly, a net 11% of owners now plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 2 points and signaling a correction from May’s hiring slump [1].
NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that while lower fuel costs are providing welcome relief, high interest rates and modest economic growth are still making owners cautious about hiring and capital spending [1]. If you’re looking to expand your team, this rebound in hiring plans suggests the labor market is stabilizing, but qualified workers remain hard to find in sectors like wholesale trade and agriculture [3].
Inflation Remains Top Concern, But Price Hikes May Ease
Inflation is still the single most important business problem for 21% of owners—the highest reading since October 2024 [1]. However, there’s forward-looking good news: only 32% of owners plan to raise prices in the next three months, down 2 points from May’s peak [1]. Meanwhile, 38% of owners actually raised prices in June, the highest level since January 2023 [1].
Capital spending is also picking up. Twenty percent of owners plan capital outlays in the next six months, the highest reading of the year [1]. Short-maturity loan rates dipped to 7.4%, the lowest since October 2022, which could help ease borrowing pressure [1].
What you can do now: Use this optimism to finalize hiring plans and lock in capital projects before rates potentially rise again. Monitor inflation trends closely, but don’t let price-hike fears stall growth—sales expectations are improving, and that’s your real opportunity. Watch the next NFIB report in August for confirmation that this upward trend holds.
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